The fact is, he never . Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered He also is a touchdown liability -- he's scored 5, 6, and 4 touchdowns in three of his four seasons (11 the other season), which had led to finishing outside the Top 25 each of those years. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. The Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs fifth-year option this offseason, drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, signed Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden, and Kenyan Drake returns from injury. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. Ricky Watters 20. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time by Team By Paul Ladewski, updated on September 10, 2021 Matt York / AP Photo Don't you just love it that sports media are so quick to hype athletes as the biggest and the best. If Robinson claims goal line work, there is an upward battle for returning a value in his ADP. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload. There are plenty of clarified RB1 types later in the draft to avoid taking the variable shot on Williams. Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Lets take a look at the average Jerome Bettis season: 277 carries, 1051 yards, 3.9 YPC, 7 TDs. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. In five games without Mark Ingram II in 2020, Dobbins only out-carried Gus Edwards 13 to 11.6. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. Aaron Jones, Green Bay | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB6. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. 3 back on the depth chart before the first preseason game. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Yeah, us, too. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Gaskin may be the best receiver of the trio, but Ahmed isn't far behind. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. Chris "Beanie" Wells. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. O.J. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. The only other way for one of them to achieve high-end RB1 value would be an injury that allows the other to see an increased workload. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. 1 status. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. He also spent his first 5 years on the saints, where he got 20 carries exactly 2 times there. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. Jamal Lewis 18. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. Along with McKissic, Gibson will have to contend with Brian Robinson Jr, a rookie from Alabama. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. Gibson fumbled in the preseason opener, and ball security has been an issue as he coughed up the football four times last year. Overall: 98 and 96. Has no highlight reel. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. Overrated David Boston -- WR, 1999-02 Boston was a former first-round pick by the Cardinals who had an epic Pro Bowl /All-Pro season in 2001 when he caught 98 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Andy Hicks: D'Andre Swift had a patchy rookie season. Andy Hicks: It is hard for an undrafted rookie running back to succeed in the NFL. Yes, but it doesn't feel like he'll be a top-10 type of running back, even in the Chiefs' potent offense. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football But so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is, and all three running backs are likely to play plenty. Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. Barry Sanders is easily the best ever. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Most overrated players in Madden 21 J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston Texans. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. Walter Payton 5. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). I think this is pretty unfair to call him the most overrated. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. 1 Barry Sanders Barry Sanders is a former American football running back who spent his entire professional career with the Detroit Lions of the National Football League. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. The team likes fourth-round pick Zamir White and passing down back Ameer Abdullah, and Kenyan Drake is still on the roster, so Jacobs is going to have trouble being consistent enough to merit an every-week RB2 start. Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Preseason may help a little. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. McKissic take the bulk of receiving work in Washington -- even though Gibson himself is a converted wide receiver. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Even if Winston wins the competition and keeps the New Orleans passing game afloat, Kamara will have a hard time repeating last year's 21 total touchdowns. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB20 | Consensus Projections RB20. 5. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. Running back Chris Wells of the Arizona Cardinals was a first-round draft pick, 31st overall, in 2009 who always seemed to be on the injured list year after year. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. Jan 26 . Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. most overrated running backs of all time. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. So what's the concern? Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. . I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. I would probably rank him around 43. Gordon isn't going away just because fantasy managers want him to. Top 10 Most Overrated Athletes of All Time It's not that they aren't great players, they just aren't everything we've been led to believe. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look . Kansas City had 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing scores. Sigmund Bloom: Barkley may not be 100% to start the season, and he might not truly be 100% until next season. Thats the first thing we notice. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. 15 receptions, 111 yards, less than a TD per year. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. It's not entirely his fault. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. The Eagles consistently added to the depth chart this offseason with Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell added to Boston Scott. 3) Micah Richards. So should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Its a knock on his offensive line. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Can he still be fantasy-relevant? Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Brown has more power and better acceleration and change-of-direction quickness than Gaskin, who is the better receiver. 2022/07/02 . His career YPC was 3.9. Now, these guys are treated with all the respect of disposable diapers. His fantasy value was bolstered late in the year due to an insane usage rate in the passing game, seeing a whopping 8.6 targets per game when Alex Smith started. My, my, how the game has changed. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. The current regime did not select Robinson. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Downing, USA Today Sports. Gibson was even in the game after Robinson was out. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. Henry is all but guaranteed to regress after rushing for over 2,000 yards last season, and he doesnt catch enough passes. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. I am a heretic in that regard. Jones was the better, more efficient runner during the 2020 regular season, and Bernard seems destined to be Tampa's primary passing-down back. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy.
